Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.7 – 75.25

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.8 ±10.4

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 72.26Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 13.93Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 57.51Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±11.2

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 48.41Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 28.92Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX -2.08Rank 33Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2689, 2714, 418

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2689, 2714, 418

Auto

41.2 28%

Teleop

71.7 49%

Endgame

33.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9506, 10014, 3240

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9506, 10014, 3240

Auto

14.7 23%

Teleop

16.5 26%

Endgame

32.1 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.7pts

Blue projected score75.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.4
Score range: 52–167
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.8Season APEX342.6

41.2Auto14.7

71.7Teleop16.5

33.4Endgame32.1

14Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	12
teleop	73	34
endgame	36	26
foul	0	0
total	132	72

Result

Final score

132 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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