Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.43 – 17.95

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.8 ±11

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 34.23Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 48.22Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 29.98Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 106.7 ±13.3

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 16.56Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 1.25Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7125Tigerbotics

Season APEX 31.5Event APEX 0.14Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 436, 418, 6672

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 436, 418, 6672

Auto

20.1 19%

Teleop

57.4 54%

Endgame

28.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5103, 4364, 7125

/ 100 compat

Projected

18 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5103, 4364, 7125

Auto

11.8 77%

Teleop

-2.6 0%

Endgame

6.2 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.4pts

Blue projected score18pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.5
Score range: -2–132
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.8Season APEX106.7

20.1Auto11.8

57.4Teleop-2.6

28.8Endgame6.2

0Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	17
teleop	97	11
endgame	34	7
foul	0	0
total	159	35

Result

Final score

159 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree