Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.29 – 104.61

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.5 ±9.8

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 13.6Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 29.6Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX -1.91Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.7 ±10.5

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 77.02Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 16.34Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 11.25Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8769, 10014, 5503

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8769, 10014, 5503

Auto

10.6 27%

Teleop

-0.6 0%

Endgame

28.9 74%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 10518, 9121

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 624, 10518, 9121

Auto

18.6 18%

Teleop

64.8 62%

Endgame

21.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.3pts

Blue projected score104.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.3
Score range: 20–126
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 114.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.5Season APEX278.7

10.6Auto18.6

-0.6Teleop64.8

28.9Endgame21.8

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	32
teleop	28	44
endgame	18	0
foul	0	15
total	60	91

Result

Final score

60 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree