Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.59 – 75.89

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 98.3 ±13.9

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 11.1Rank 33Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 17.11Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 13.38Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.7 ±11.7

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 36.05Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7271Hangar 84

Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 22.56Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 17.28Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3240, 9786, 5986

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3240, 9786, 5986

Auto

14.7 47%

Teleop

11.4 36%

Endgame

5.3 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8749, 7271, 4610

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8749, 7271, 4610

Auto

21.4 28%

Teleop

37.9 50%

Endgame

15.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.6pts

Blue projected score75.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.3
Score range: 21–97
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 93 vs event baseline 115.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

98.3Season APEX353.7

14.7Auto21.4

11.4Teleop37.9

5.3Endgame15.8

20Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	28
teleop	2	27
endgame	0	20
foul	0	0
total	18	75

Result

Final score

18 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 12.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree