Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

5.98 – 62.46

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 111.2 ±12.8

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX -2.77Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -0.97Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 9.72Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.5 ±10.5

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 12.36Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 34.52Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 15.58Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 4364, 5986

/ 100 compat

Projected

6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 4364, 5986

Auto

18.1 100%

Teleop

-13.4 0%

Endgame

4.2 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10518, 8749, 5103

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10518, 8749, 5103

Auto

18.1 34%

Teleop

23.6 44%

Endgame

12.2 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score6pts

Blue projected score62.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.5
Score range: -15–83
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

111.2Season APEX363.5

18.1Auto18.1

-13.4Teleop23.6

4.2Endgame12.2

46Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	8	44
endgame	8	13
foul	0	0
total	30	80

Result

Final score

30 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree