Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

247.74 – 78.82

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

140 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 67 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.9 ±10.7

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 2.94Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 174.05Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 70.75Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 156.4 ±11.7

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 10.37Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 13.7Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 54.75Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4364, 2468, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4364, 2468, 624

Auto

52.6 22%

Teleop

134.8 55%

Endgame

56.6 23%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9786, 6526, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9786, 6526, 2687

Auto

25.1 35%

Teleop

32.3 45%

Endgame

14.6 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score247.7pts

Blue projected score78.8pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 168.9
Score range: 56–271
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.9Season APEX156.4

52.6Auto25.1

134.8Teleop32.3

56.6Endgame14.6

26Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	17
teleop	72	35
endgame	0	23
foul	0	30
total	140	105

Result

Final score

140 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 67 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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