Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.37 – 103.09

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 121.2 ±12.2

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 5.29Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 16.65Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 11.43Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.2 ±11.7

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 68.89Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6171⚛ Chain Reaction ⚛

Season APEX 38Event APEX 4.68Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 29.52Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5986, 5103, 6526

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5986, 5103, 6526

Auto

14.5 56%

Teleop

3.2 12%

Endgame

8.4 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2689, 6171, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2689, 6171, 9418

Auto

31.6 32%

Teleop

52.7 53%

Endgame

14.4 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.4pts

Blue projected score103.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.7
Score range: 13–123
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 112.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

121.2Season APEX258.2

14.5Auto31.6

3.2Teleop52.7

8.4Endgame14.4

15Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	43
teleop	14	89
endgame	24	25
foul	0	10
total	61	167

Result

Final score

61 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree