Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.66 – 205.97

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.3 ±12.4

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 1.52Rank 33Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 91.44Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 16.7Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 621.4 ±9.9

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 23.91Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 30.72Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 151.34Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3240, 2881, 9080

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3240, 2881, 9080

Auto

10.1 10%

Teleop

66.4 68%

Endgame

21.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 436, 10014, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

206 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 436, 10014, 2468

Auto

44.8 22%

Teleop

106.3 52%

Endgame

52.5 26%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.7pts

Blue projected score206pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.3
Score range: 90–226
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 110.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.3Season APEX621.4

10.1Auto44.8

66.4Teleop106.3

21.7Endgame52.5

26Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	59
teleop	105	84
endgame	43	107
foul	5	15
total	171	265

Result

Final score

171 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree