Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.16 – 38.15

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.2 ±12.2

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 60.92Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 10.82Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -4.58Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216 ±11.7

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 9.72Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 1.92Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 26.51Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2687, 4610, 4364

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2687, 4610, 4364

Auto

29.4 46%

Teleop

30.1 47%

Endgame

4.6 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9786, 5503, 2728

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9786, 5503, 2728

Auto

9.3 30%

Teleop

2.8 9%

Endgame

18.8 61%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.2pts

Blue projected score38.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29
Score range: 18–87
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 110.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.2Season APEX216

29.4Auto9.3

30.1Teleop2.8

4.6Endgame18.8

15Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	15
teleop	73	9
endgame	28	12
foul	0	0
total	118	36

Result

Final score

118 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree