Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.86 – 44.38

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 77.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.2 ±10.4

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 30.43Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 30.24Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 48.19Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.5 ±10.5

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 15.18Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 4.12Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 25.08Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8769, 6672, 9506

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8769, 6672, 9506

Auto

12.9 13%

Teleop

53.4 53%

Endgame

34.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2789, 10518, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2789, 10518, 8749

Auto

19.5 45%

Teleop

16.6 39%

Endgame

6.8 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.9pts

Blue projected score44.4pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.5
Score range: 24–129
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 110.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.2Season APEX374.5

12.9Auto19.5

53.4Teleop16.6

34.9Endgame6.8

5Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	32
teleop	7	76
endgame	21	35
foul	0	5
total	58	148

Result

Final score

58 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 77.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree