Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.65 – 160.5

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.3 ±11.7

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 155.13Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 4.4Rank 33Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 23.12Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.7 ±10.5

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 2.12Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 33.05Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 125.33Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2468, 3240, 5103

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2468, 3240, 5103

Auto

47.3 26%

Teleop

89.9 50%

Endgame

42.9 24%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9121, 9418, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9121, 9418, 148

Auto

19.4 13%

Teleop

95.2 63%

Endgame

37.7 25%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.7pts

Blue projected score160.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.2
Score range: 141–203
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 109.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.3Season APEX395.7

47.3Auto19.4

89.9Teleop95.2

42.9Endgame37.7

58Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	5
teleop	54	73
endgame	40	88
foul	50	5
total	158	171

Result

Final score

158 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree