Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.24 – 195.12

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.4 ±11.7

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 19.76Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 41.75Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -11.27Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 683.1 ±8.7

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 108.13Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 62.94Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 24.05Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2728, 418, 4364

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2728, 418, 4364

Auto

17.9 34%

Teleop

26.0 50%

Endgame

8.5 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1296, 624, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1296, 624, 10014

Auto

37.8 20%

Teleop

112.9 60%

Endgame

37.1 20%

Strengths

· 1296 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.2pts

Blue projected score195.1pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -144.9
Score range: 31–214
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 107.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.4Season APEX683.1

17.9Auto37.8

26Teleop112.9

8.5Endgame37.1

13Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	47
teleop	40	132
endgame	42	82
foul	0	0
total	104	261

Result

Final score

104 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree