Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.06 – 84.12

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 61 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.9 ±11.6

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 7.87Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 61.9Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 15.29Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.1 ±12.8

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 14.01Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 28.64Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7271Hangar 84

Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 41.47Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2789, 2689, 436

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2789, 2689, 436

Auto

33.2 39%

Teleop

25.1 29%

Endgame

27.0 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5503, 9080, 7271

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 9080, 7271

Auto

8.5 10%

Teleop

41.8 49%

Endgame

35.0 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.1pts

Blue projected score84.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.9
Score range: 64–105
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 165 vs event baseline 109.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.9Season APEX139.1

33.2Auto8.5

25.1Teleop41.8

27Endgame35

31Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	9
teleop	82	9
endgame	21	3
foul	0	0
total	144	21

Result

Final score

144 – 21

Prediction correct · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree