Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.43 – 111.41

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192 ±11.7

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 2.38Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 38.39Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 13.66Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.3 ±11.2

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 86Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6171⚛ Chain Reaction ⚛

Season APEX 38Event APEX 3.73Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 21.68Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10518, 8769, 9786

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10518, 8769, 9786

Auto

6.8 15%

Teleop

22.0 50%

Endgame

15.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2881, 6171, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2881, 6171, 11178

Auto

18.6 18%

Teleop

70.4 69%

Endgame

13.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.4pts

Blue projected score111.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57
Score range: 34–131
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 109.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192Season APEX469.3

6.8Auto18.6

22Teleop70.4

15.4Endgame13.5

16Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	32
teleop	17	109
endgame	18	35
foul	0	0
total	43	176

Result

Final score

43 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree