Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

75.79 – 53.98

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 24.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.7 ±12.2

7125Tigerbotics

Season APEX 31.5Event APEX 2.91Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 39.66Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 33.22Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.8 ±11.7

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 13.31Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 5.21Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 35.46Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7125, 436, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7125, 436, 9418

Auto

11.3 16%

Teleop

34.5 50%

Endgame

23.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8769, 5986, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

54 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8769, 5986, 11178

Auto

17.3 33%

Teleop

22.3 42%

Endgame

13.5 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.8pts

Blue projected score54pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.8
Score range: 31–99
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 81 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.7Season APEX324.8

11.3Auto17.3

34.5Teleop22.3

23.5Endgame13.5

51Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	13
teleop	8	22
endgame	12	17
foul	0	0
total	29	52

Result

Final score

29 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 24.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree