Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.81 – 80.51

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

82 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.6 ±9.8

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 45.78Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 30.41Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 55.62Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.5 ±12.2

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 47.09Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 20.1Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 13.32Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2714, 8749, 9506

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2714, 8749, 9506

Auto

13.0 11%

Teleop

60.7 49%

Endgame

49.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 418, 4610, 5986

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 418, 4610, 5986

Auto

24.0 30%

Teleop

47.6 60%

Endgame

7.1 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.8pts

Blue projected score80.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.3
Score range: 61–152
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 110.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.6Season APEX163.5

13Auto24

60.7Teleop47.6

49.3Endgame7.1

64Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	14
teleop	41	6
endgame	27	10
foul	0	0
total	82	30

Result

Final score

82 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree