Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.04 – 67.13

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.6 ±11.2

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 56.01Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 118.01Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7271Hangar 84

Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 39.02Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.4 ±11.6

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 29.56Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 38.33Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -0.76Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2689, 148, 7271

/ 100 compat

Projected

213 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2689, 148, 7271

Auto

45.9 22%

Teleop

114.3 55%

Endgame

48.1 23%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5103, 6672, 9121

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5103, 6672, 9121

Auto

9.8 16%

Teleop

31.2 52%

Endgame

19.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213pts

Blue projected score67.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.9
Score range: 47–233
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 109.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.6Season APEX184.4

45.9Auto9.8

114.3Teleop31.2

48.1Endgame19.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	9
teleop	119	12
endgame	66	27
foul	0	10
total	249	58

Result

Final score

249 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree