Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.62 – 0

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275 ±12.4

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 14.93Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 64.43Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 28.26Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 102.9 ±13.9

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -20.11Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 0.12Rank 33Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6171⚛ Chain Reaction ⚛

Season APEX 38Event APEX -3.93Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9786, 624, 9080

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9786, 624, 9080

Auto

13.5 14%

Teleop

62.5 66%

Endgame

19.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4364, 3240, 6171

/ 100 compat

Projected

-23.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4364, 3240, 6171

Auto

8.1 0%

Teleop

-18.2 78%

Endgame

-13.2 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.6pts

Blue projected score-23.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.6
Score range: -20–128
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 113.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275Season APEX102.9

13.5Auto8.1

62.5Teleop-18.2

19.3Endgame-13.2

12Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	17
teleop	51	6
endgame	23	5
foul	0	5
total	93	33

Result

Final score

93 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 23.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree