Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.83 – 85.42

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.9 ±9.8

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 48.81Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 77.15Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 52.87Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.5 ±10.5

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 29.22Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 18.12Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 38.08Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9506, 2881, 2687

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9506, 2881, 2687

Auto

27.7 16%

Teleop

104.1 59%

Endgame

43.2 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10014, 4610, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10014, 4610, 9418

Auto

16.6 20%

Teleop

50.4 61%

Endgame

15.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.8pts

Blue projected score85.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.4
Score range: 65–199
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.9Season APEX362.5

27.7Auto16.6

104.1Teleop50.4

43.2Endgame15.5

40Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	9
teleop	131	30
endgame	38	14
foul	25	10
total	232	63

Result

Final score

232 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree