Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.39 – 130.09

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 80.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.6 ±11.7

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 2.03Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -4.87Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 141.23Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 495.8 ±9.8

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 32.25Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 8.36Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 89.48Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5986, 2789, 2468

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5986, 2789, 2468

Auto

45.8 31%

Teleop

71.1 49%

Endgame

29.4 20%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8769, 2728, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8769, 2728, 1296

Auto

28.0 22%

Teleop

69.0 54%

Endgame

31.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.4pts

Blue projected score130.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.3
Score range: 110–158
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 108.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.6Season APEX495.8

45.8Auto28

71.1Teleop69

29.4Endgame31.9

107Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	26
teleop	108	116
endgame	54	65
foul	0	0
total	223	207

Result

Final score

223 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 80.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree