Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.29 – 111.74

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354 ±10.5

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 23.97Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2687Team Apprentice

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 40.43Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 112.89Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.3 ±10.4

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 45.77Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 48.54Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 17.43Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5103, 2687, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5103, 2687, 148

Auto

27.2 16%

Teleop

108.8 63%

Endgame

37.9 22%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 418, 9506, 5503

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 418, 9506, 5503

Auto

15.3 15%

Teleop

55.2 54%

Endgame

30.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.3pts

Blue projected score111.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.6
Score range: 92–197
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 109.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354Season APEX238.3

27.2Auto15.3

108.8Teleop55.2

37.9Endgame30.9

119Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	19
teleop	125	53
endgame	66	44
foul	5	0
total	239	116

Result

Final score

239 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 33 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree