Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

66.41 – 19.89

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.7 ±10.7

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 28.54Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 15.71Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 22.16Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.8 ±11.7

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 19.11Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX -3.07Rank 33Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 3.85Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8749, 9786, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8749, 9786, 10014

Auto

15.6 27%

Teleop

25.4 43%

Endgame

17.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11178, 3240, 2728

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11178, 3240, 2728

Auto

14.8 100%

Teleop

-7.1 0%

Endgame

4.0 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.4pts

Blue projected score19.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.5
Score range: 0–86
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 110.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.7Season APEX358.8

15.6Auto14.8

25.4Teleop-7.1

17.4Endgame4

89Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	19
teleop	26	22
endgame	23	7
foul	20	0
total	91	48

Result

Final score

91 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree