Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.99 – 142.79

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.9 ±11.7

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 35.75Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7271Hangar 84

Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 20.29Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 82.95Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.3 ±11

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 72.26Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 48.41Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 22.12Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2789, 7271, 2881

/ 100 compat

Projected

139 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2789, 7271, 2881

Auto

23.3 17%

Teleop

76.2 57%

Endgame

35.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2689, 9506, 5103

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2689, 9506, 5103

Auto

42.1 31%

Teleop

60.2 45%

Endgame

31.8 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139pts

Blue projected score142.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.8
Score range: 116–166
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.9Season APEX233.3

23.3Auto42.1

76.2Teleop60.2

35Endgame31.8

9Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	31
teleop	59	56
endgame	40	34
foul	0	0
total	110	121

Result

Final score

110 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree