Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.11 – 132.14

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.5 ±11.6

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 22.12Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -8.54Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 33.53Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.7 ±10.5

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 53.71Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 13.4Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 65.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4610, 2789, 8769

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4610, 2789, 8769

Auto

8.2 16%

Teleop

19.5 37%

Endgame

24.6 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2714, 436, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2714, 436, 624

Auto

24.2 19%

Teleop

73.8 58%

Endgame

30.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.1pts

Blue projected score132.1pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85
Score range: 28–151
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 107.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.5Season APEX420.7

8.2Auto24.2

19.5Teleop73.8

24.6Endgame30.3

52Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	5
teleop	22	87
endgame	25	51
foul	5	0
total	68	143

Result

Final score

68 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree