Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.75 – 27.26

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 54.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.8 ±9.8

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 24Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 49.61Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 9.14Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.4 ±11.2

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 11.95Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 29.8Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5986┌ Iron Fangs ┐

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX -14.49Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10014, 418, 10518

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10014, 418, 10518

Auto

20.8 23%

Teleop

58.1 63%

Endgame

13.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8749, 9418, 5986

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8749, 9418, 5986

Auto

5.9 25%

Teleop

4.3 18%

Endgame

13.4 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.8pts

Blue projected score27.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.5
Score range: 8–102
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 108.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.8Season APEX418.4

20.8Auto5.9

58.1Teleop4.3

13Endgame13.4

28Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	35
teleop	24	70
endgame	6	2
foul	15	5
total	58	112

Result

Final score

58 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 54.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree