Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.42 – 35.24

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 63.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.4 ±11.1

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 11.81Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 60.05Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 19.56Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.2 ±11.7

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX -35.17Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 49.25Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 21.16Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4610, 624, 5103

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4610, 624, 5103

Auto

20.2 24%

Teleop

53.4 64%

Endgame

10.0 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4364, 2689, 8769

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4364, 2689, 8769

Auto

33.3 87%

Teleop

10.2 27%

Endgame

-5.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.4pts

Blue projected score35.2pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.2
Score range: 16–110
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 106.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.4Season APEX241.2

20.2Auto33.3

53.4Teleop10.2

10Endgame-5.3

44Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	41
teleop	67	49
endgame	19	40
foul	0	0
total	123	130

Result

Final score

123 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 63.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree