Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.51 – 184.88

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.9 ±11.6

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 24.47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 54.63Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -2.59Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.1 ±12.4

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 148.84Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7125Tigerbotics

Season APEX 31.5Event APEX 13.02Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 23.02Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9121, 9506, 2789

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9121, 9506, 2789

Auto

2.9 4%

Teleop

34.7 47%

Endgame

37.0 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2468, 7125, 9786

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2468, 7125, 9786

Auto

46.8 26%

Teleop

88.6 50%

Endgame

43.1 24%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.5pts

Blue projected score184.9pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.4
Score range: 58–204
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 106.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.9Season APEX376.1

2.9Auto46.8

34.7Teleop88.6

37Endgame43.1

90Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	53
teleop	18	87
endgame	20	32
foul	0	0
total	54	172

Result

Final score

54 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree