Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.88 – 23.75

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.9 ±9.3

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 113Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 13.57Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 16.31Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.6 ±12.7

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 15.19Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX -12.07Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 20.63Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 148, 6526, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 148, 6526, 10014

Auto

19.6 15%

Teleop

88.8 66%

Endgame

26.0 19%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5103, 2789, 9786

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5103, 2789, 9786

Auto

0.5 2%

Teleop

2.0 10%

Endgame

17.6 88%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score142.9pts

Blue projected score23.8pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.1
Score range: 5–162
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 107.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.9Season APEX122.6

19.6Auto0.5

88.8Teleop2

26Endgame17.6

103Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	9
teleop	89	10
endgame	55	18
foul	0	15
total	167	52

Result

Final score

167 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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