Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.59 – 124.62

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 86.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.6 ±11.7

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 18.12Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 45.2Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3240Team Orion

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX -3.73Rank 33Record 0-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 538 ±9.3

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 48.86Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 41.59Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 34.17Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 2689, 3240

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 2689, 3240

Auto

17.7 29%

Teleop

25.8 42%

Endgame

17.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2881, 418, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2881, 418, 624

Auto

26.7 23%

Teleop

84.6 73%

Endgame

4.3 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.6pts

Blue projected score124.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65
Score range: 41–144
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 103.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.6Season APEX538

17.7Auto26.7

25.8Teleop84.6

17.3Endgame4.3

176Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	43
teleop	17	177
endgame	22	42
foul	15	0
total	96	262

Result

Final score

96 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 86.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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