Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.7 – 139.91

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±11.2

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 28.92Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6171⚛ Chain Reaction ⚛

Season APEX 38Event APEX 12.38Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 30.4Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.4 ±10.5

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 15.28Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 114.15Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 10.48Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10014, 6171, 6672

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10014, 6171, 6672

Auto

19.8 31%

Teleop

22.3 35%

Endgame

21.8 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5503, 1296, 4610

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 1296, 4610

Auto

28.4 21%

Teleop

70.1 53%

Endgame

34.1 26%

Strengths

· 1296 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.7pts

Blue projected score139.9pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.2
Score range: 49–163
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.5Season APEX324.4

19.8Auto28.4

22.3Teleop70.1

21.8Endgame34.1

26Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	15
teleop	42	75
endgame	25	20
foul	0	10
total	72	120

Result

Final score

72 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree