Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.45 – 63.85

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.8 ±10.4

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 36.99Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 6.58Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 54.88Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.7 ±11.7

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 22Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 39.22Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 2.63Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9418, 2728, 9506

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9418, 2728, 9506

Auto

12.2 14%

Teleop

44.0 51%

Endgame

30.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 436, 9080, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 436, 9080, 8749

Auto

12.1 18%

Teleop

24.9 37%

Endgame

30.7 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.5pts

Blue projected score63.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.6
Score range: 45–117
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 105.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.8Season APEX402.7

12.2Auto12.1

44Teleop24.9

30.1Endgame30.7

111Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	11
teleop	48	38
endgame	37	24
foul	5	5
total	108	78

Result

Final score

108 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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