Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.33 – 113.17

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

87 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.8 ±11

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 16.62Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 30.58Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 54.13Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.3 ±11

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 28.16Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 20Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4610BearTecs

Season APEX 22.7Event APEX 65.01Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11178, 5103, 418

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11178, 5103, 418

Auto

22.7 23%

Teleop

57.5 58%

Endgame

19.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6526, 2728, 4610

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6526, 2728, 4610

Auto

21.8 21%

Teleop

53.9 53%

Endgame

25.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.3pts

Blue projected score113.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.8
Score range: 83–131
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 102.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.8Season APEX212.3

22.7Auto21.8

57.5Teleop53.9

19.1Endgame25.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	17
teleop	52	20
endgame	13	6
foul	10	0
total	87	43

Result

Final score

87 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 42.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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