Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.9 – 84.11

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 76 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.3 ±11.2

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 44.58Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 26.42Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 41.9Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.2 ±11.2

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 23.78Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 40.83Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6171⚛ Chain Reaction ⚛

Season APEX 38Event APEX 19.5Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9080, 9418, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9080, 9418, 1296

Auto

21.0 22%

Teleop

53.1 56%

Endgame

21.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 624, 9506, 6171

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 624, 9506, 6171

Auto

36.0 42%

Teleop

33.4 39%

Endgame

17.1 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.9pts

Blue projected score84.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.8
Score range: 66–131
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 98.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.3Season APEX324.2

21Auto36

53.1Teleop33.4

21.1Endgame17.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	16
teleop	128	85
endgame	41	36
foul	5	20
total	192	157

Result

Final score

192 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 76 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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