Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115 – 101.69

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 98.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.8 ±13.9

4364Metal Jackets

Season APEX 39.3Event APEX 46Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 39.18Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7271Hangar 84

Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 29.82Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.7 ±9.8

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 34.91Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 59.46Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 7.32Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4364, 9786, 7271

/ 100 compat

Projected

115 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4364, 9786, 7271

Auto

28.3 27%

Teleop

53.4 52%

Endgame

21.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 418, 148, 8769

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 418, 148, 8769

Auto

14.8 15%

Teleop

54.9 56%

Endgame

27.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115pts

Blue projected score101.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.3
Score range: 85–132
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 92.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.8Season APEX457.7

28.3Auto14.8

53.4Teleop54.9

21.4Endgame27.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	35
teleop	10	126
endgame	0	42
foul	5	0
total	20	203

Result

Final score

20 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 98.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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