Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.78 – 169.42

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.1 ±10.5

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 3.5Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 41.23Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 35.05Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 350.6 ±11.2

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 20.26Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 134.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 14.36Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9121, 8749, 2728

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9121, 8749, 2728

Auto

20.3 26%

Teleop

34.7 45%

Endgame

21.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9080, 148, 10518

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9080, 148, 10518

Auto

17.6 11%

Teleop

98.3 61%

Endgame

44.3 28%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.8pts

Blue projected score169.4pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.6
Score range: 57–192
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 126.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.1Season APEX350.6

20.3Auto17.6

34.7Teleop98.3

21.8Endgame44.3

42Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	24
teleop	24	95
endgame	33	42
foul	0	15
total	73	176

Result

Final score

73 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree