Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

316.05 – 179.77

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

386 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597.7 ±9.3

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 12.42Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 171.54Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 132.09Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.5 ±9.3

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 34.16Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 115.33Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 30.28Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 2468, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

316 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 2468, 148

Auto

51.8 17%

Teleop

171.7 56%

Endgame

81.3 27%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9418, 1296, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9418, 1296, 10014

Auto

25.3 15%

Teleop

85.1 51%

Endgame

56.9 34%

Strengths

· 1296 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score316pts

Blue projected score179.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.3
Score range: 158–338
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597.7Season APEX602.5

51.8Auto25.3

171.7Teleop85.1

81.3Endgame56.9

0Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	11
teleop	204	49
endgame	99	68
foul	10	15
total	386	143

Result

Final score

386 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 53.4 pts

Match videos

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