Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

318.6 – 186.19

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

297 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597.7 ±9.3

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 13.34Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2468Team Appreciate

A+

Season APEX 304.8Event APEX 172.56Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 132.7Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 602.5 ±9.3

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 36.38Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 117.46Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 32.35Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 2468, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5503, 2468, 148

Auto

50.7 16%

Teleop

175.2 57%

Endgame

81.9 27%

Strengths

· 2468 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9418, 1296, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9418, 1296, 10014

Auto

25.6 15%

Teleop

88.1 50%

Endgame

61.0 35%

Strengths

· 1296 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score318.6pts

Blue projected score186.2pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.4
Score range: 164–341
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 123.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597.7Season APEX602.5

50.7Auto25.6

175.2Teleop88.1

81.9Endgame61

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	23
teleop	147	57
endgame	76	20
foul	15	20
total	297	120

Result

Final score

297 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Match videos

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