Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
131.1 – 146.13
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
142 – 158
Prediction correct · off by 11.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 197.4 ±13.1
Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 47.8Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 36.43Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 90Event APEX 46.87Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.2 ±10.4
Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 86.29Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 17.23Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 42.61Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3561, 9457, 4734
64
/ 100 compatProjected
131.1 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 3561, 9457, 4734
Auto
29.3 24%
Teleop
62.6 51%
Endgame
30.1 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4063, 5411, 9136
65
/ 100 compatProjected
146.1 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 4063, 5411, 9136
Auto
25.4 17%
Teleop
80.3 55%
Endgame
41.2 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.54
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score131.1pts
Blue projected score146.1pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 31%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -15
- Score range
- 107–170
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
197.4Season APEX231.2
29.3Auto25.4
62.6Teleop80.3
30.1Endgame41.2
20Consistency20
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 29 | 23 |
| teleop | 77 | 92 |
| endgame | 36 | 43 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 142 | 158 |
Result
Final score
142 – 158
Prediction correct · off by 11.4 pts
Match videos
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