Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

387.93 – 128.05

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

468 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.1 ±8.8

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 154.37Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 14.58Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 218.98Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.4 ±13.1

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 47.05Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9457Robot X

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 34.91Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 46.09Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6773, 10994, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6773, 10994, 6369

Auto

70.5 19%

Teleop

228.2 61%

Endgame

78.1 21%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3561, 9457, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.1 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3561, 9457, 4734

Auto

28.8 25%

Teleop

56.9 49%

Endgame

31.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score387.9pts

Blue projected score128.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 259.9
Score range: 105–411
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 130.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582.1Season APEX197.4

70.5Auto28.8

228.2Teleop56.9

78.1Endgame31.5

17Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	31
teleop	281	94
endgame	119	27
foul	0	0
total	468	152

Result

Final score

468 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 52 pts

Match videos

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