Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.67 – 114.86

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 113.3 ±12.1

9105TechnoTalons

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 18.4Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 25.52Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 12.75Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±12.2

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 45.31Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 15.55Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 54Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9105, 6974, 11469

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9105, 6974, 11469

Auto

16.1 28%

Teleop

26.5 46%

Endgame

14.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1164, 2657, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1164, 2657, 4192

Auto

34.1 30%

Teleop

56.8 50%

Endgame

23.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.7pts

Blue projected score114.9pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.2
Score range: 33–139
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 131.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

113.3Season APEX173.9

16.1Auto34.1

26.5Teleop56.8

14.4Endgame23.8

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	33
teleop	13	53
endgame	17	7
foul	15	0
total	62	93

Result

Final score

62 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Match videos

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