Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.14 – 44.1

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.2 ±10.4

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 88.95Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 23.17Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 47.02Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.8 ±11

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX 8.42Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 13.53Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 22.15Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4063, 5411, 9136

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4063, 5411, 9136

Auto

27.8 17%

Teleop

94.9 59%

Endgame

37.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8732, 9492, 6526

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8732, 9492, 6526

Auto

21.4 50%

Teleop

10.3 24%

Endgame

11.5 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.1pts

Blue projected score44.1pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115
Score range: 20–183
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 131.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.2Season APEX140.8

27.8Auto21.4

94.9Teleop10.3

37.7Endgame11.5

15Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	16
teleop	64	74
endgame	39	50
foul	0	0
total	130	140

Result

Final score

130 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 pts

Match videos

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