Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242 – 83.58

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 5.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.4 ±9.8

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 119.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 28.45Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 94.03Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166 ±11.6

10312ByteForce

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 21.03Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 21.94Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 40.61Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3310, 11200, 4206

/ 100 compat

Projected

242 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3310, 11200, 4206

Auto

42.7 18%

Teleop

144.1 60%

Endgame

51.9 22%

Strengths

· 3310 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10312, 4153, 7540

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10312, 4153, 7540

Auto

18.6 22%

Teleop

43.7 52%

Endgame

22.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242pts

Blue projected score83.6pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.4
Score range: 60–266
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 131.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.4Season APEX166

42.7Auto18.6

144.1Teleop43.7

51.9Endgame22

40Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	25
teleop	178	38
endgame	32	22
foul	0	0
total	252	85

Result

Final score

252 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 5.7 pts

Match videos

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