Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.28 – 110.1

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±12.2

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 47.31Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 16.94Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 56.03Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.4 ±13.1

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 41.78Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9457Robot X

Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 28.09Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4734The Iron Plainsmen

Season APEX 90Event APEX 40.23Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1164, 2657, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1164, 2657, 4192

Auto

32.3 27%

Teleop

65.6 55%

Endgame

21.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3561, 9457, 4734

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3561, 9457, 4734

Auto

28.7 27%

Teleop

53.9 50%

Endgame

25.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.3pts

Blue projected score110.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.2
Score range: 86–144
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 130.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.9Season APEX197.4

32.3Auto28.7

65.6Teleop53.9

21.5Endgame25.3

8Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	30
teleop	34	68
endgame	37	57
foul	0	45
total	112	200

Result

Final score

112 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 pts

Match videos

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