Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

380.46 – 70.39

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

415 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.1 ±8.8

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 216.36Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 11.34Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 152.76Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113.3 ±12.1

9105TechnoTalons

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 23.24Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 29.21Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11469Ignis Mechanica

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 17.94Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6369, 10994, 6773

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6369, 10994, 6773

Auto

69.7 19%

Teleop

224.0 60%

Endgame

79.6 21%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9105, 6974, 11469

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9105, 6974, 11469

Auto

17.0 24%

Teleop

33.4 48%

Endgame

19.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score380.5pts

Blue projected score70.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 310.1
Score range: 47–403
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 129.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582.1Season APEX113.3

69.7Auto17

224Teleop33.4

79.6Endgame19.3

58Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	12
teleop	238	8
endgame	74	0
foul	30	0
total	415	20

Result

Final score

415 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts

Match videos

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