Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

399.79 – 244.94

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

508 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 103.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.1 ±8.8

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 157.92Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10994SSES Phenoms

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 18.57Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 223.3Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.4 ±9.8

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 119.19Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 31.59Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 94.16Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6773, 10994, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6773, 10994, 6369

Auto

70.3 18%

Teleop

236.1 60%

Endgame

84.2 22%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3310, 11200, 4206

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3310, 11200, 4206

Auto

40.5 17%

Teleop

148.4 61%

Endgame

54.0 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score399.8pts

Blue projected score244.9pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.9
Score range: 221–424
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 655 vs event baseline 133.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582.1Season APEX391.4

70.3Auto40.5

236.1Teleop148.4

84.2Endgame54

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	37
teleop	306	79
endgame	94	31
foul	15	0
total	508	147

Result

Final score

508 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 103.1 pts

Match videos

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