Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.37 – 109.27

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 29.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.8 ±11

8732Trinity Force

Season APEX 30.6Event APEX 17.47Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9492LadyTalons

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 22.62Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6526Cyber Rangers

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 30.28Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±12.2

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 43.4Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2657Team Thundercats

Season APEX 35.7Event APEX 14.25Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 51.62Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8732, 9492, 6526

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8732, 9492, 6526

Auto

19.4 28%

Teleop

29.1 42%

Endgame

21.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1164, 2657, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1164, 2657, 4192

Auto

34.1 31%

Teleop

54.7 50%

Endgame

20.0 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.4pts

Blue projected score109.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.9
Score range: 46–133
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 134.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.8Season APEX173.9

19.4Auto34.1

29.1Teleop54.7

21.2Endgame20

43Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	39
teleop	60	39
endgame	25	29
foul	30	0
total	127	107

Result

Final score

127 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 29.4 pts

Match videos

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