Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.22 – 77.22

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 96.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.5 ±13.6

9105TechnoTalons

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 13.14Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8512Manzano Monarchs

Season APEX 19Event APEX 29.18Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 85.9Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.2 ±11

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX -6.82Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 54.86Rank 7Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11200Panther Prime

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 29.18Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9105, 8512, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9105, 8512, 6369

Auto

19.4 15%

Teleop

62.1 49%

Endgame

45.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6974, 4063, 11200

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6974, 4063, 11200

Auto

13.5 19%

Teleop

42.8 60%

Endgame

15.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.2pts

Blue projected score77.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51
Score range: 58–147
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.5Season APEX203.2

19.4Auto13.5

62.1Teleop42.8

45.7Endgame15.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	25
teleop	148	63
endgame	71	44
foul	0	0
total	266	132

Result

Final score

266 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 96.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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