Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.22 – 125.71

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

219 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 102.2 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.7 ±11.2

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 6.08Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 8Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 89.14Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.7 ±11.7

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 20.86Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 89.14Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9080ENIGMA

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 15.71Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5866, 5411, 6773

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5866, 5411, 6773

Auto

19.2 19%

Teleop

58.3 59%

Endgame

21.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9136, 3561, 9080

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9136, 3561, 9080

Auto

23.1 18%

Teleop

76.3 61%

Endgame

26.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.2pts

Blue projected score125.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.5
Score range: 85–144
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 100.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.7Season APEX176.7

19.2Auto23.1

58.3Teleop76.3

21.1Endgame26.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	12
teleop	140	25
endgame	35	0
foul	0	0
total	219	37

Result

Final score

219 – 37

Prediction missed · off by 102.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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