Qualification · Qualification 60
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
54.97 – 100.81
36%64%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
49 – 81
Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.5 ±11.6
Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 23.11Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 17.09Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 14.77Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.4 ±13.1
Season APEX 25.9Event APEX 28.72Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 58.21Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 13.88Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10312, 5613, 9492
40
/ 100 compatProjected
55 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 10312, 5613, 9492
Auto
10.8 20%
Teleop
27.5 50%
Endgame
16.4 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9457, 4192, 10994
53
/ 100 compatProjected
100.8 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 9457, 4192, 10994
Auto
29.8 30%
Teleop
42.6 44%
Endgame
25.4 26%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.62
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score55pts
Blue projected score100.8pts
Red win probability36%
Event bonus sample154alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 36%, blue 31%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -45.8
- Score range
- 32–124
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
150.5Season APEX163.4
10.8Auto29.8
27.5Teleop42.6
16.4Endgame25.4
0Consistency25
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 10 | 31 |
| teleop | 26 | 47 |
| endgame | 13 | 3 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 49 | 81 |
Result
Final score
49 – 81
Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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