Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.9 – 95.14

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 121.8 ±12.1

6974Zia Robotics

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 28.06Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9105TechnoTalons

Season APEX 36.3Event APEX 28.38Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5613ThunderDogs

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 20.46Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.5 ±14.9

8512Manzano Monarchs

Season APEX 19Event APEX 12.62Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 59.99Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5866Fe [Iron] Tigers

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 22.53Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6974, 9105, 5613

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6974, 9105, 5613

Auto

13.1 18%

Teleop

36.0 49%

Endgame

23.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8512, 4192, 5866

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8512, 4192, 5866

Auto

21.9 24%

Teleop

40.6 44%

Endgame

28.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.9pts

Blue projected score95.1pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.2
Score range: 54–118
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 106 vs event baseline 130.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

121.8Season APEX140.5

13.1Auto21.9

36Teleop40.6

23.8Endgame28.9

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	21
teleop	8	42
endgame	6	13
foul	0	0
total	30	76

Result

Final score

30 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 33 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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